by Antonio C. Abaya

In a nationwide presidential survey conducted by Social Weather Stations from Sept. 18 to 21, 1,800 respondents were asked “Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as president? Respondents were allowed to give three names each.

The results seem to show an overwhelming support for Noynoy Aquino who was chosen by 60 percent (or 1,080) of the 1,800 respondents. But the results do not tell us how many of those 1,080 picked Noynoy as first choice—which is what happens in a real election—and how many picked him as second or third choice—which would not be allowed in a real election.

Be that as it may, Noynoy did score significantly over all the other contenders. SWS has conducted this three-choice survey at least nine previous times, going back to September 2007.

Senator Manny Villar scored 37 percent, up four points from 33 in the previous (three-choice) survey in June 2009. Noynoy, on the other hand, became a presidential contender only after the death of his mother Cory in early August 2009.

Former President Joseph Estrada scored 18 percent, down seven points from 25. Senator Chiz Escudero scored 15 percent, down five points from 20. Senator Mar Roxas was fifth, scoring 12 percent, down eight points from 20.

VP Noli de Castro was sixth, scoring 8 percent, down eleven points from 19. Senator Loren Legarda was seventh, scoring 5 percent, down 10 points from 15. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro was eighth, scoring 4 percent, up 0.80 point from 3.2.

Senator Panfilo Lacson was ninth, scoring 2 percent, down three points from five. Makati Mayor Jejomar was tenth, scoring 2 percent, down two points from four. Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando was eleventh, scoring 1 percent, no improvement from his previous one. And TV Evangelist Eddie Villanueva was twelfth, scoring 1 percent, up 0.80 point from his previous 0.2.

Noynoy Aquino drew significantly from the previous supporters of Estrada, Escudero, Roxas, De Castro, Legarda, Lacson and Binay.

Only Villar, Teodoro and Villanueva managed to add to their previous scores, but only insignificantly.

There was no mention at all of other presidential contenders: Nicky Perlas, JC de los Reyes, Jamby Madrigal and Mike Velarde, who should now be scratched from future presidential surveys.

Of course, we now know that Roxas and Lacson have since stepped down to the vice-presidency, and that Legarda and Binay are expected to do the same soon. Fernando has announced that he will run for mayor of Marikina, his previous post. Villanueva should also tell his followers that, like Gov. Among Ed Panlilio, God has called him and told him not to pursue the presidency, this his second time.

Escudero and De Castro should likewise scale down their ambitions to VP or even senator, Escudero because he is really too young (he just turned 40 last week) and suffers from a dearth of actual accomplishment; De Castro because the Lopezes would not want him to compete with Noynoy.

As for the bland and colorless Teodoro, he suffers, additionally, from the underwhelming  performance of the NDCC, of which he is ex-officio chair, during the recent flood disasters and should best aim for the Senate instead.

I understand that he has communicated with his cousin Noynoy that in case his run for the presidency fizzles out, he would support him (Noynoy). Shades of Alberto Romulo! If true, it could start an Abandon Ship! stampede from the sinking Superferry Gloria.

For all intents and purposes, the presidential race in 2010 is narrowing down to Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar, Joseph Estrada and either Escudero and De Castro, if the last two will persist (assuming they have the deep pockets to last the remaining seven months).

Bu what exactly does Noynoy’s 60 percent in the SWS’ three-choice survey really mean? I realize that each of the 12 contenders would have had different percentages of respondents choosing him/her as first, second and third choice.

But for the sake of simplicity, I am assuming that 60 percent of their supporters chose each of them as his/her first choice. Under that assumption, the following would be the first-choice picks of the 1,800 respondents:

Noynoy 36 percent, Villar 22 percent, Estrada 10.8 percent, Escudero 9.0 percent, De Castro 4.8 percent, Legarda 3.0 percent, Teodoro 2.4 percent … which add up to 88 percent. The remaining 12 percent would be divided among the other contenders and the undecided. This seems to be more meaningful than the SWS’ three-choice survey where the replies add up to an incomprehensible 165.5 percent..

By coincidence, there was another presidential conducted nationwide among 1,500 respondents from Sept 17 to 24 by a previously unheard of survey organization, StratPOLLS, said to be a sister company of Station dwIZ, Business Mirror and Graphic magazine. The results:

Noynoy 36 percent, Villar 20 percent, Estrada 11 percent, Escudero 11 percent, De Castro 7 percent, Legarda 5 percent, Teodoro 5 percent, Villanueva one percent, Fernando 0.5 percent. (Philippine Star, Oct. 02)

If you compare the two sets of numbers, you will be amazed at the almost exact copies of my extrapolation from the SWS’ 3-choice survey and the StratPOLLS one-choice survey. Let me put them side by side, Abaya-SWS versus StratPOLLS: Keep in mind that these surveys have a 2 to 3-percent margin of error.

Noynoy (36 vs 36), Villar (22 vs 20), Estrada (10.8 vs 11), (Escudero 9 vs 11),  De Castro (4.8 vs 7), Legarda (3 vs 5), Teodoro (2.4 vs 5), Villanueva (0.6 vs 1) Bayani (0.6 vs 0.5).

All I can say is: How about that? Now let’s hear from Pulse Asia.

For Noynoy, this is really a decline, but to a more realistic level of public support. In a one-choice SWS poll conducted on Sept. 5 and 6, among 1,200 respondents in the vote-rich Lingayen to Lucena Corridor—comprising Pangasinan, Central Luzon, the National Capital Region, and the Calabarzon portion of Southern Tagalog—Noynoy got the nod from an astronomical 50 percent of the respondents.

For Noynoy, it should be reassuring to be back on solid Earth, partially flooded though it may be at present.

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