By Lawrence Agcaoili

Barclays Capital, the investment bank of London-based Barclays Bank PLC, sees the growth of the Philippine economy slowing down further to 3 percent this year due to the global meltdown.

Barclays Capital analyst Nicholas Bibby said in a commentary that the country’s gross domestic product growth was likely to slacken this year from 4.6 percent last year.

The investment bank said private consumption and investment were likely to slow down this year due to the expected 5 percent decline in the remittances of Filipinos working abroad.

“This, in turn, is expected to feed through private consumption and investment, as remittances have largely fuelled consumer spending and the recovery in the housing market. Overall we look for GDP to rise by 3.0 percent in 2009 versus 4.6 percent in 2008,” Bibby said.

The GDP forecast of Barclays is lower-than-the-revised projection of 3.7 percent to 4.4 percent set by economic managers, through the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee.

Bibby said the amount of money sent home by Filipinos working abroad fell 11 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 2001 during the last global downturns.

The investment bank sees the Philippine GDP contracting 0.8 percent in the first quarter of the year before recovering starting in the second quarter of the year.

“Looking ahead, we do not believe that the Philippines will be exempt from the global downturn—growth will slow in the first half of 2009. Apart from weaker exports, the Philippines is also exposed to weaker global growth via remittances from overseas workers,” he added.

The Bangko Sentral sees a zero growth in the remittances of migrant Filipino workers this year after expanding 13.7 percent to $16.4 billion last year due to the massive layoff of Filipinos working abroad.

Data showed that remittances from Filipinos working abroad went up by 13.7 percent to $16.43 billion last year from $14.45 billion in 2007.