The news that the Philippine economy grew last year at a pace that exceeded even the government?s own lowered expectations provides encouragement?but only, to paraphrase one Singapore-based analyst, if you don?t know anything about icebergs. The tips of icebergs, in particular.

What about iceberg tips should we know about, as they pertain to the economy? ?Iceberg tips are misleading, and we can expect that the [Philippine] economy is not too far off from tipping over,? said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Pte. And, as the crew of the Titanic found out, even the smallest iceberg tip could hide a massive hulk underwater that could sink anything that attempts to go through it.

The government earlier expected full-year gross domestic product at 4.2-4.5 percent for 2008, as the world?and many of the Philippines? trading partners?sank, Titanic-like, into recession. That the government yesterday reported a 4.6-percent growth for the entire year (compared to 2007?s amazing 30-year high of 7.2 percent) speaks more of the accuracy of its forecasts more than anything else that it could really crow about.

Many analysts were underwhelmed. Both the stock market and currency traders ignored the positive news of better-than-expected growth, with the bourse shedding less than a percent and the peso falling to P47.1 to the dollar, slightly weaker from P46.95 at the start of trading.

Observers said increased government spending and holiday-season inflows of remittances from overseas Filipino workers?which has spurred private consumption and saved the Philippines from recession in decades past?likely played the fireman?s role in the critical final quarter of last year, when the global crisis really started to hit in the US and elsewhere. It also helped that the Philippine economy is only 32-percent dependent on exports, unlike many other outward-looking Asian countries where exports make up most of the GDP.

Indeed, other analysts who are less obsessed with icebergs and other such threats believe that this country may actually avoid a full-blown recession (like it did during the 1997 currency crisis) because it is largely independent of the rest of the world economy. Vincent Tien You Tsui, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said that while the economy may slow further in 2009, ?overall, the Philippines will be better insulated from the collapse of external demand? because we rely less on exports to drive growth.

Increased remittances aside, Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said he expects the economy to continue to grow in 2009 as the government implements more infrastructure projects, which are expected to boost spending and create jobs. While we still have to get details of how the government intends to disburse the money it has allocated for these consumer spending-boosting make-work projects as part of its economic stimulus campaign, it does raise hopes that the Arroyo administration will not rely solely on migrants? remittances to perk up the decelerating economy.

It would probably not be such a bad idea to have some people look out for icebergs and their telltale tips along the way, though.

* * *

Although the prospects that the economy as a whole may be able to dodge the recession bullet seem okay, concerns about the worsening unemployment picture are more troubling. When the Labor Department itself predicts that up to 300,000 jobs will be lost this year, you know there?s bound to be trouble up ahead for a lot of employment-based personal economies.

Indeed, the fear of lost jobs has spread from export-oriented companies, as longtime exporters like Texas Instruments, Intel and Panasonic, among others, have started cutting jobs or pulling up stakes altogether. This was to be expected, since worldwide demand for Philippine-made electronic components and semiconductors (which account for 60 percent of exports) has plummeted in a major way.

But it seems that the fear of losing jobs has already spread to local enterprises, as well, if a recent survey of business owners conducted by the Makati Business Club is any indicator. In the survey, which was conducted earlier this month, only 7 percent of 126 MBC members polled said the worldwide crisis would have no effect on their businesses and the jobs that they have created.

?Nearly half of these [46 percent] expect a 3-percent to 10-percent reduction in their work force, and close to a quarter [21 percent] project the extent of workers? dismissal to be from 20 percent to 30 percent. Thirteen percent expect a cut in manpower by about 50 percent to 60 percent, while 8 percent expect an 80-percent to 90-percent work-force reduction,? the MBC said in a statement.

Labor Secretary Marianito Roque said around 15,000 workers have already been laid off over the past two months, while 19,000 others had their work week cut to four days or less. In Roque?s ?worst-case scenario,? the number of people who will become newly jobless will rise to between 250,000 and 300,000 by the end of June.

But Roque described the job cuts so far as ?manageable,? considering the nationwide work force of about 37 million and the current unemployment rate of 6.8 percent. The government, he says, is asking employers? groups to ease the fallout from the global downturn (especially in the electronics and garments sectors, which have been hit hardest) by instituting measures to help workers and resorting to job cuts only as a last resort.

Apart from its own economy-boosting spending programs, the government may also have to increase the number of workers it sends overseas. According to an official of the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, there are still hundreds of thousands of jobs in the Middle East alone that could be filled by Filipinos, especially those who have lost employment here.

But while allowing more Filipinos to find jobs abroad (a palliative, temporary measure begun in the Marcos years) may bring food to the table, it is bound to increase the social cost of migration, in the form of broken-up families and other ills that counterbalance the aberration of having more than a tenth of our population working overseas. Unfortunately, until the local economy becomes strong enough that it will not need to send people out of the country except if they really want to, armies of Filipino workers will continue to be our one true export product.

And that, down the road, may be the biggest iceberg of them all.