By Fel V. Maragay

Last November, Senator Manuel Villar was booted out as Senate president and instantly, he pointed to his potential contenders in the 2010 presidential derby as the culprits behind the leadership coup.

Villar’s downfall was widely seen as a preview of the rivalry among the presidential hopefuls from the administration and opposition camps. His ouster came about two months after he publicly declared his intention to run for president.

Political analysts see the race to Malacañang as the biggest factor that hinders the administration game plan for a move to amend the Constitution before 2010 to change the system of government.

The five presidentiables in the Senate—Villar, Mar Roxas, Panfilo Lacson, Loren Legarda, Richard Gordon and Francis Escudero—as well as the prospective vice presidential bets—Francis Pangilinan, Ramon Revilla Jr. and Jinggoy Estrada—are all opposed to “tampering” with the Constitution before the 2010 polls for obvious reasons.

Their combined votes are sufficient to kill any resolution to convene Congress into a Constituent Assembly or to call for a Constitutional Convention.

The coup plotters against Villar wanted him stripped of the Senate presidency because they felt uncomfortable that this prestigious and strategic position was giving him an edge over them in advancing his presidential ambition, Senate sources said.

But after his ouster, his ratings in the presidential surveys even improved. In one nationwide survey, he even landed in the top slot. Which indicated that Villar’s popularity was unaffected by his removal and the barrage of attacks from his rivals. Or the public sympathized with him over his misfortune, the sources said.

Was this a reprise of the days when former President Joseph Estrada was running for president in the 1998 elections when he was the object of a cruel demolition campaign by his adversaries? Estrada emerged almost unscathed from the smear attacks by winning the presidency over his closest opponent, then Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. by the biggest margin of votes in the history of presidential elections in the country.

Escudero’s strong showing in the presidential preferences survey has surprised many, but he is still playing coy about his presidential plan since he said he will not be eligible to run for president until he reaches 40 years of age this October.

This early, leaders of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, led by business tycoon and former Ambassador Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., say that their choice for standard-bearer in the 2010 polls is a toss between Legarda and Escudero.

But since Legada ran for vice president as runningmate of the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., the presidential bet of the Genuine Opposition in the 2004 elections, the camp of Legarda claims that she should be the logical choice of the NPC and the united opposition in 2010.

Escudero believes that one of his biggest advantage as a prospective presidential aspirant is his identification with the youth.

“Based on statistics, more than 60 percent of voters belonging to the young generations who are below 50 years old, whoever is the presidential candidate who has the trust and support of the young generation has good chances of winning,” he said.

Some political observers say Escudero may very well be the Philippine equivalent of Barak Obama, who won the Unite States presidential election despite his relative youth and inexperience.

The neophyte senator from Sorsogon also believes that the opposition enjoys the upperhand in the presidential contest due to the perceived unpopularity of President Arroyo. Because of this, he said there will “pseudo-oppositionists” among those aspiring for the presidency.

“Who is the real opposition? In my view, in 2010, all those running for president will wear the mask and costume of the opposition because of the low approval and trust ratings of the incumbent President,” he said.

Both Legarda and Roxas have not formally declared their presidential plan, but judging from their body language and public pronouncements, they will settle for nothing but the number one post.

They have hired top-notch publicists to see to it that they and their pronouncements on the burning issues of the day are always visible in the media. They have also put up an elaborate media machinery.

Legarda has demonstrated her strong vote-getting power by topping the 2007 and l998 senatorial elections. She plans to reveal her political plans during her birthday celebration late this month.

On the other hand, Roxas drew up a vision of his plan to lead the republic in his speech that followed his election as president of the Liberal Party in November 2007.

He seemed to regard himself as destined to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather, Manuel Roxas, who served as president of the republic during the post-World War II era.

Although generally known as a soft-spoken, mild-mannered politician, his political ambition has induced him to become a vociferous critic of Mrs. Arroyo in whose Cabinet he once served as secretary of Trade and Industry.

In the administration camp, Vice President Noli de Castro, Senator Richard Gordon and Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando are the top presidential contenders.

De Castro is seen as the natural political heir of Mrs. Arroyo, having run as her vice presidential bet in the 2004 election. But De Castro, who has been consistently topping the presidential surveys, has spurned the invitations of two administrations parties, Lakas Chrisitian Muslim Democrats and Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino, to sign up as party member.

In contrast, Fernando has been aggressively offering himself to be the Lakas presidential candidate despite his negligible showing in the ratings game.

Gordon, for his part, hopes to boost his chances with his new high-profile role as chairman of the Senate Blue Ribbon committee.

In that capacity, he is tasked with investigating the scandals and anomalies in the administration and the executive branch. This, however, is a role that does not endear him to Malacañang.

Interestingly, Gordon does not relish being tagged as an administration senator and prefers to be known as an independent.