A thought-provoking question this journalist is often asked is whether former President Joseph Estrada will pursue his presidential bid in 2010 in the light of conflicting interpretations on his supposed disqualification to seek re-election.

I see no reason to doubt Estrada’s determination to return to power and restore the last three and a half-year of his term that he was unable to serve due to his incarceration on account of the plunder case against him. I personally heard him expound on this plan while he was under hospital detention at the Veterans Memorial Medical Center and under house arrest in Tanay, Rizal.  After being granted executive clemency and regaining his freedom, he was emboldened to fulfill his bid for a political comeback.

Upon his release from detention, he lost no time in embarking on a series of provincial sorties which he said was his way of thanking the people for their support even when he was out of power.  This support was manifested in the resounding victory of his son, Jinggoy, in the 2004 senatorial election, and before this, of former First Lady Loi Ejercito Estrada, in a similar poll in 2001.

In reality, his nationwide tour was intended to gauge the nation’s pulse on his political plan.

And the deposed president liked what he saw. According to reports, he was always mobbed by the crowd wherever he went.  His strong showing in the presidential preference surveys, sometimes eclipsing all other aspirants in the ratings charts, further convinced him that his bid for a second term is a viable proposition.

What many cannot understand is Estrada’s pronouncement that he would want all opposition presidential contenders to unite behind a common standard bearer.  If they fail to unite, this will give him no choice but to go ahead with his presidential candidacy.

Hasn’t he realized that by joining the fray, he is contributing to the difficulty of fielding a common candidate and the fragmentation of the opposition forces?

Estrada knows that there are presidential wannabes in the opposition who are hell bent in pushing their candidacies. And having invested a fortune in preparing for the coming polls, they could not be expected to withdraw and scale down their election goal.

From where I stand, I can see that there is only one thing that will prevent the former Chief Executive from throwing his hat into the presidential ring.  That is, if the Supreme Court rules that he is legally disqualified from running. But there are legal luminaries who hold the view that there is no legal obstacle to his possible candidacy. 

Those who argue that Estrada can run for president again and those who espouse the opposite view may be both right.  The issue can be resolved depending on how the Constitution and applicable laws are interpreted.  Admittedly, Estrada may be at a disadvantage when the issue is elevated to the Supreme Court.  Considering that the high tribunal by that time will be wholly made up of Arroyo appointees, you can figure out for yourself what the court’s verdict would be on a case that will make or break Estrada’s bid to return to power.

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Another interesting but now tiresome issue is whether the renewed attempt to amend the Constitution before 2010 can still take off the ground. This may be heart-breaking to the advocates of constitutional reforms, but candidly speaking, Charter change became a lost cause when administration allies in the House of Representatives put a halt to the debates on the divisive proposal last month. It was a polite way of admitting that they have shelved the resolution to convene Congress into a Constituent Assembly.

They saw the handwriting on the wall when the 23 senators unanimously approved a resolution repudiating the position of the House that it can amend the Constitution with or without the participation of the Senate. This position was propounded by some House leaders in the face of the Senate’s intransigence against the proposal that both chambers of Congress should jointly, and not separately, vote on amendments.

A last-ditch attempt by some well-meaning legislators to save the amendment initiative through a Senate-House dialog fizzled out.  Had the dialog pushed through, both chambers would have explored and struck a compromise.

The Charter change train simply ran out of steam.  Without an agreement between the Senate and the House on how to go about the amendatory process, without an approved resolution to call either a Constituent Assembly or Constitutional Convention before the end of 2008, Charter change has no chance of prospering.

With the onset of 2009, the attention of Congress and even Malacañang is now expected to shift to the 2010 elections. 

The senators who have a moist eyes on the presidency, as well as the vice presidency, were instrumental in blocking Charter change before 2010.  They had the numbers to kill any measure that they felt would stand in the way of their presidential plans.

Former President Fidel Ramos was correct.  It was a wrong strategy to launch Charter change movements again during the last two years of President Arroyo’s term. There is always the suspicion of a hidden agenda to prolong the term of the incumbent president. Actually, the administration made attempts to amend the Constitution and install a unicameral parliamentary system after Mrs. Arroyo’s election in 2004. Remember that millions of signatures were gathered for a people’s initiative to change the system of government. Unfortunately, the attempt went up in smoke. The whole process was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.