According to Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes and the big oil companies, there is no hoarding of liquefied petroleum gas, the most common cooking fuel in the Philippines that is also fast becoming an alternative fuel for thousands of taxicabs all over the country. There?s just none that can be bought anywhere.

The oil companies have long been predicting price increases for LPG, and now we have a full-blown shortage in our hands even if petroleum prices remain depressed the world over. But, Reyes and the Big Three say, there?s really no evidence of hoarding.

Who do they think they?re fooling?

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No one said the new year was going to be a joyride for the Philippine economy, as the effects of the prolonged worldwide recession start to hit our shores. And now the World Bank is predicting that two significant vulnerabilities of the local economy are about to come into play in a big way in 2009.

In its quarterly economic update for January, the World Bank predicted a one-two punch on the Philippines in the form of significant decreases in foreign remittances from Filipinos working overseas and reduced income from our largely undiversified export sector. Since both foreign remittances and export earnings are major drivers of the local economy, the hits these two sectors will take in 2009 can only mean that the Philippines will take a lot more time to get out of the global economic funk.

According to the bank, money sent home by millions of Filipino workers abroad will expand only by about 4 percent this year, compared to the hefty 15.1-percent increase in remittances from January to November 2008 against the same period in 2007. Because foreign remittances drive consumer spending in everything from cellular phone ?loads? to the real estate market, and because consumers spending the money they get from abroad will get us out of a recession faster, less remittances mean a longer-lasting recession hereabouts.

The Bank?s prediction is fully half of the 8 percent of the already-reduced forecast of the Bangko Sentral for this year?s remittances, which peaked at more than $15 billion in the first 11 months of 2008. The Bank says the only increase expected from remittances will come from Filipinos employed in ?recession-proof? jobs, meaning that Filipinos working in sectors whose jobs may suddenly become desirable to local workers in these depressed times could soon join the unemployed in the countries where they reside.

For those who still don?t know how big a factor foreign remittances play in the local economy, money sent home from abroad now accounts for something like 10 percent of the country?s entire domestic product, apart from driving consumer spending. After decades of being saved by foreign remittances, the local economy may finally find that the well is now in danger of running dry.

As far as exports are concerned, the World Bank says the economy is already beset with significant reductions in income from that important sector, as well. This is because electronics and electronic components, which are already suffering from reduced demand worldwide, account for 60 percent of exports from the Philippines.

?Although the exports-to-GDP ratio has fallen in recent years from 50 in 2000 to 34 today, a single product group, electronics, still commands a significant share of total export,? the Bank?s report said. ?This lack of export diversification, coupled with a specialization in an industry with significant and prolonged cycles, is a major risk for the economy in 2009.?

This early, Philippine electronics shipments have already declined and will continue to be under pressure going forward, the Bank said. This could result in exports contracting by one percent this year after years and years of small but significant growth, it said.

The toxic combination of fewer remittances and a fall-off in exports will have dire consequences and may bring about a perfect Philippine economic storm. According to the Bank, Philippine GDP can only be expected to grow by only 3 percent this year, compared to the amazing 7.2-percent GDP increase posted in 2007.

Let?s just hope the government realizes the trouble we?re in and takes steps to lessen the effects of the looming crisis, especially on the poor. Right now, nearly a year into the worldwide recession, the authorities have not yet come out with the specifics of the supposed pump-priming program that is being advertised as the way out of the coming economic tsunami.

Even the source of funding for the pump-priming program is unclear, to say nothing of the projects where the money will supposedly be spent. (It is noteworthy that the political opposition is now saying that the proposed pump-priming funds will be used to amend the Constitution instead. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns.)

The rest of us can only brace for the tough times that surely lie ahead. And hope that we survive without too much damage.

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Environmentalists in ecology-conscious Olongapo City are up in arms over the cutting of centuries-old narra and mahogany trees inside a public high school campus and called on Environment Secretary Lito Atienza to go after the culprits. In addition, they asked the regional office of the Department of Education to slap administrative charges on the school principal, Ellen Agabao.

Councilor Jong Cortez, chairman of the city council?s committee on environmental protection, accused school authorities of allowing the massacre of the old trees after the environmental group Protect and Preserve to Prosper reported the matter to local authorities. The local group said Agabao and other officials of the Olongapo City National High School were unable to explain why the trees needed to be removed without first seeking permission from the DENR and other local offices.

?We have a law that states the cutting of trees requires permission from the DENR. Obviously no permit was obtained. The DENR should now go after the violators,? the PPP said in a statement. The local environmental watchdog urged Atienza to apply the long arm of the law fully in Olongapo to serve as warning to those who would attempt to do the same in other places.

?Teachers should be teaching our children to care for the environment, not to destroy it. They should serve as role models in nature preservation. But Agabao showed her students the exact opposite,? said Dr. Art Mendoza, director of the James L. Gordon Memorial Hospital and an officer of the OCNHS Alumni Association. Mendoza said the trees had long been a part of the daily campus life of past and present students, having been there for as long as anyone can remember.

Alumnus Cesar Santiago recalled that on hot days, students often held their classes under the shade of the now-cut trees. ?It is sad that future students of OCNHS will no longer enjoy the experience,? Santiago said.