By Roderick T. dela Cruz

The World Bank yesterday said the Philippine economy probably grew 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, putting last year?s growth at 4.3 percent, but warned that growth could slow to 3 percent this year.

?Economic growth has held up relatively well up to now but signs are that the sharp global slowdown will further and significantly impact the economy,? the bank said in its latest Philippines Quarterly Economic Update released yesterday.

Official government figures showed that gross domestic product averaged 4.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2008. The National Statistical Coordination Board will release the fourth-quarter figures on Jan. 29.

The World Bank said amid the global economic downturn, the country?s GDP growth could slow to 3 percent in 2009, before recovering to 4.1 percent in 2010.

The report said the government faced the difficult challenge of bracing the economy for the impact of a worsening global slowdown this year.

It said while the global financial crisis had affected the peso, the stock market and bank earnings, its impact has been comparatively mild and certainly manageable to date.

?The global economic slowdown is nevertheless affecting?and will continue to do so to a larger extent?the real economy [leading economic indicators such as imports, exports, and remittance growth are sharply down],? the bank said.

Remittances, however, are expected to keep growing, although at a slower pace this year.

?After a remarkable increase over the past few years, growth in overseas Filipino workers? remittances decelerated sharply since October. After rising by double digit rates in the last six months, remittances grew by only 6.6 percent in October-November vis-?-vis the cumulative growth of 17.1 percent in September as the global financial crisis affected incomes of Filipinos abroad,? it said.

The government said around 50,000 workers were likely to lose their jobs this year.

?Deployment, however, continued to be strong as of November at 24.4 percent. This could suggest that remittances are likely to still grow, albeit at a slower pace, in the coming months,? the report said.

It said private sector investment, which has so far remained resilient and is driven by construction, was likely to slow in the coming quarters.