New York-based think tank Global Source sees Philippine economic growth slowing down to 2.5 percent this year from 4.6 percent in 2008 due to the global financial crisis.

In its quarterly outlook on the Philippines entitled “Philippine Forecast: Year of the Castrated Bull,” Global Source said the country would feel the strain of falling global demand, slowing growth and rising unemployment this year.

“The world has become an even gloomier place since our last report, with most forecasts for global growth now plummeting to zero or turning negative. Our projections for the Philippines reflect this change in mood, and we now anticipate weaker economic performance,” the think tank said.

The company believes that a percentage-point drop in US growth knocks off about 0.5 percentage point to 0.6 percentage point from Philippine growth.

“The country will not be immune to the global financial crisis, but it will not be falling into a recession either, from our current viewpoint. We believe this partly owes to a stable macro economy strengthened by past financial reforms,” Global Source said.

The forecast is way below the revised forecast of the government. The Development Budget Coordination Committee sees the GDP expanding between 3.7 percent and 4.7 percent this year instead of the original range of 6.1 percent to 7.1 percent.

Despite the global economic slowdown last year, the domestic economy as measured by the gross domestic product grew 4.6 percent, after expanding at a 31-year high of 7.2 percent in 2007. Lawrence Agcaoili